Nikita Makaed
Contact me: makaed.nikita@stern.nyu.edu
[10/6/2026] FTAI Aviation (NASDAQ: FTAI)
- Short FTAI Aviation (FTAI): PT’26: $122.6 (Spot price: $180)
(1) FTAI’s Aerospace Products margins came from cheap engines bought in 2021-23, and that inventory runs out by Q4 ‘27. New revenue earns a 22% margin vs 36% on legacy inventory as engine cores cost 3-4x more and module prices are up just 5%, so we see margins sliding to 22% by 2028 while the street models a rebound to 30-33%.
(2) FTAI’s power business should not be priced into the stock as data centers buy Mod-1, FTAI’s converted jet-engine turbine, for speed, not economics, and that edge is fading. It faces 8.8 GW of competing capacity due by 2027, 5.9x its planned deliveries, burns ~12% more fuel than rival gas engines and needs case-by-case permits in Texas, so we model 35 units and $260M of FY27 Power EBITDA vs the street’s ~60 units and $455M. - Power Point & Model
[9/27/2026] Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX)
- Short Netflix (NFLX): Blended ’27 PT: $42 (Spot price: $73)
(1) The street is underestimating Netflix’s ghost churn, users who stopped watching Netflix churn away with each coming hike. US card payers are -3.5% since the March hike with no recovery, UK payers -11%, and Brazil and Mexico daily users -10% to -13%.
(2) Netflix’s growth is price, currency and ads, not engagement. Excluding ads, US subscription revenue grows ~6% on ~9% higher prices, and the ads doubling won’t repeat as buyers report flat CPMs, LATAM growing from currency and Argentina pricing, with a Japan’s one-off boom.
(3) Netflix’s margin expansion is overstated; Netflix can’t cut content costs without accelerating churn. Viewing hours stayed near flat, while spend increased by 10%. - Memo & Model
[9/24/2026] Viking Holdings (NYSE: VIK)
- Long Viking Holdings (VIK): PT’28 $144 (Spot price: $80)
(1) The Street is underwriting Viking’s capacity growth based on disclosed order book, where channel check with ex-Viking VP of New Builds show capacity growth of 7-8% vs 5% implied CAGR. We believe Street is under-modelling this step-up in capacity growth, which will lift EPS by 15% vs Street in ’28.
(2) Street models ’27 bookings demand compression caused by current low-water levels, suggesting lower yields across River & Ocean. Chanel Checks with Travel Agents prove strong demand for ’27 & ’28 itineraries, with alt data showing Viking is imposing additional pricing power on the remaining ’27 capacity.
(3) The low-water hit is a one-off $191m across FY’26–29, $0.38 a share even at 100% flow-through. Sell side models a hit of up to 250m of EBITDA with compressing yield growth, we see an acceleration. - Memo & Model & Power Point
[7/29/2026] Affirm(NASDAQ: AFRM)
- Long Affirm (AFRM): PT’26 $86 (Spot price: $69)
(1) Street is underwriting growth from Affirm’s web of partnerships, I see their biggest customer alone contributing 35-40% of GMV and helping international transition.
(2) Affirm’s credit card is undervalued, it will dominate the credit card space with membership and loyalty benefits and rapidly contribute to GMV through everyday purchases and un-partnered merchants.
(3) Street’s view of the international expansion is lagging; channel checks show that the international buildout is ahead of schedule. I expect a strong Q4 print with firm international guidance for FY’27.
(4) Affirm is dominating the BNPL space and will take share from competitors as it expands. Channel checks & customer calls showed stickiness to the product, and the data shows growing spend with small churn. - Memo & Model
[7/13/2026] Expedia(NASDAQ: EXPE)
- Short Expedia (EXPE): PT’26 $199.34- (Spot price: $270)
(1) Expedia’s B2B growth will continue to decline with a hardening comp set already in play, where competitors like Booking and Hopper are already taking Expedia’s own clients (Citi, RBC).
(2) B2C continues to lose to direct booking; hotels pay member 4.5-9.1% back plus status, where One Key only pays 1%. With Expedia cutting that program for the 2nd time in 14 months.
(3) Agentic checkout turns Expedia into booking handler that will trade at a fraction of today’s price; additionally Expedia has been losing LLM travel search demand.
(4) Airbnb’s hotel push attacks 80% of revenue for Expedia, every point of share Airbnb takes costs Expedia 3.5x more nights than Booking. - Memo & Model & Powerpoint
[7/1/2026] AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS)
- Short AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): PT’$35 – (Spot price: $90)
(1) The market is currently overstating ASTS’ ability to monetize, overstating potential MAU growth + ability to maintain high monthly price.
(2) Management has been misleading about production costs, and their funding capacity; the company will be forced to raise money in FY’27 due to rising opex and high hardware and launch costs.
(3) Management has explicitly guided 45-60 satellites in orbit for this year, although always found to be overly optimistic, expert calls and channel checks show that the number will land on the lower 15-20 satellite range, further pushing back the timeline for monetization. - Memo & Model
[5/26/2026] Spotify (NYSE: SPOT)
- Short Spotify (SPOT): PT’26 $370 – (Spot price: $520)
(1) Spotify’s recent Q1 price hike positions their subscription cost at a 15% premium to peers, with already Q1’26 premium adoption decelerating, our survey of US paid users implies a further ~50bps in monthly churn compared to street estimates.
(2) The Street is underwriting a “trust me” story with management’s ability to deliver 40% gross margins through Super Tier Adoption. As music becomes commoditized and mature markets saturate, we believe declining free to paid conversion will lead to higher margin compression than consensus.
(3) The long-term cash flows generated by the Super Pro-Tier are currently mispriced in the tape. At 17.5% of addressable premium users and our adoption rate of 13% by 2030, Spotify will de-rate by ~24%. We see the new tier as an AI “hail mary” to inflate the multiple through price hikes as opposed to underlying user growth. - Memo & Model
[5/15/26] BYD (OTCMKT: BYDDY / SHE: 002594)
- Long BYD Auto (BYDDY/2594): PT’26 $16.27 (Spot price: $12.20)
(1) The Street is falling victim to country-of-origin bias, pricing the American mentality onto markets that don’t share it. This has translated into meaningful mispricing and skewed R/R for BYD.
(2) Margin compression is cyclical, and the overseas mix shift, local factory buildout, and in-house battery cost declines drive blended GM expansion of 270-330+ bps above Street by FY28.
(3) Overseas growth is materially underappreciated. BYD’s cost structure lets them undercut every peer in price-sensitive markets that premium EV’s can’t reach. Overseas profitability is also the oxygen that lets them outlast the Chinese price war. - Memo & Model
[4/7/26] Middleby (NASDAQ: MIDD)
- Long Middleby (MIDD): PT $178.50 – (Spot price: $138)
(1) CFS is under-appreciated as a recurring revenue business, 54% of revenue from installed base with structural switching costs, $800M+ in pent-up replacement demand, and Middleby Advantage servicing model unlocking $150M+ EBITDA opportunity, yet trades at 9.1x as a cyclical.
(2) FP spin-off is a free call option, priced at ~zero inside the conglomerate despite 20% margins and 66% organic order growth, while peers GEA and JBT Marel trade at 13–17x; standalone re-rating to 12–14x adds $35–45/share.
(3) Activist-led capital allocation shift, Ed Garden (sole 13F holding, 7%+ stake) executing the Trian playbook: $710M buybacks in 2025, RK divested to 26North at $885M, FP spin Q2 2026, and compensation reformed to ROIC and organic growth. - Memo & Model
[3/21/26] Parsons Corporation (NYSE: PSN)
[2/20/26] Canada Goose (NYSE: GOOS)
- Short Canada Goose: PT’$4.93 – (Spot price: $12.49)
(1) Climate-driven mix shift away from heavyweight down structurally dilutes margins as CG moves into lower-ASP, more competitive lightweight categories.
(2) Declining store unit productivity and continued DTC expansion drive operating deleverage and ROIC compression. - Memo & Model
[12/26/25] XPeng (NYSE: XPEV)
- Long XPeng (XPEV):
(1) Global BEV Adoption remains in early growth with significant runway, which XPeng is positioned as disproportionately capture.
(2) XPeng’s technological moat in autonomous driving (XNGP) is exceptional, which continues to separate it from giant competitors like BYD & Li Auto.
(3) XPeng has achieved one of the highest gross margins in the industry, meanwhile maintaining the 2nd lowest pricing amongst competitors, while maintaining their technological moat. - Memo & Model
